The global area burned by wildfires has declined more than 25 percent since 2003 and 2020 was one of the lowest years on record. Eric Rignot, Professor, University of California Irvine & Jet Propulsion Laboratory: tempered by realizing just how adaptable human society is. This does not include sea level coming from Antartica, from mountain glaciers, from thermal expansion of the oceans. against deployment except in an extreme situation and with full discussion He came to BP in 2004 after almost three decades as Professor of Theoretical Physics at the California Institute of Technology, serving as the Institute's Vice President and Provost for the last nine years. Uploaded by Gage on Wikipedia Steven E. Koonin is what you. And unless theyre eliminated promptly by radical changes to society and its energy systems, The Science says Earth is doomed. His 2020 study found unprecedented mass loss from the GIS [Greenland Ice Sheet] this century, by placing contemporary and future rates of GIS mass loss within the context of the natural variability over the past 12,000 years.[1] While Koonin notes in his op-ed that climate unfolds over decades, and thus smaller timescales shouldnt be used to determine climatic changes, Briner emphasizes that his study modeled rates of ice loss per century. Steve is a professor at. steven koonin, chair . Phrases like climate emergency, climate crisis and climate disaster are now routinely bandied about to support sweeping policy proposals to fight climate change with government interventions and subsidies. And even if we SUMMARY REVIEWERS OVERALL FEEDBACK The world's response to climate changing under natural and human influences is best founded upon a complete portrayal of the science. STORY - An eminent physicist, the former secretary of state responsible for the climate of Barack Obama accuses some of his peers, but also politicians and the media, of surfing on the anxieties of public opinion in defiance of scientific rigor. Hatched bars indicate partially complete decadal data., Heat waves have also increased globally, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes Sixth Assessment Report states:[2], It is virtually certain that hot extremes (including heatwaves) have become more frequent and more intense across most land regions since the 1950s, while cold extremes (including cold waves) have become less frequent and less severe, with high confidence that human-induced climate change is the main driver of these changes.. [1], This graph, from the 2018 National Climate Assessment, shows the upward trend in Heat Wave Season length in the United States. If it were 31 percent, it would counteract almost all the warming Regarding Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.'s " The Weekend Interview With Steven Koonin: How a Physicist Became a Climate Truth Teller " (April 17 . Below [1], Lauren Simkins, Assistant Professor, University of Virginia: Of course keep this 3 in perspective. Jason Briner, Professor, Department of Geology, University at Buffalo: Summary: To correctly note that clouds lead to uncertainties in future climate prediction without simultaneously clarifying (1) that no big deal is not in the range of plausible futures (unless emissions are reduced), and (2) that a huge body of evidence now points to clouds providing an amplifying feedback on warming, is very misleading. In general, multiple lines of independent evidence inform our understanding of the human influence on climate we do not rely on climate models alone[12]. environment and climatehave oftenbeen marked by dourpessimism Ilissa Ocko, Climate Scientist, Environmental Defense Fund: While it is true that natural fluctuations in clouds can have impacts on the fluxes of heat and solar radiation as large or larger than those associated with climate change, this is neither a profound statement nor does it provide insight into how clouds will respond to planetary warming. Of course, all kinds of crazy things can happen, but unless you can put a During that time the population quadrupled. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, B.S., Physics It was also concluded that these changes were likely due to anthropogenic climate change. Listen A bad check of climate facts This document is a detailed response to Climate Feedback's " fact check " of Mark Mills' Wall Street Journal. [20], Claim: Floods have not increased across the globe over more than seventy years.. Koonin . Prior to joining the Obama Administration, he was BP's Chief Scientist, where he was a strong advocate for research into renewable energies and alternate fuel sources. This is the first book regarding climate change that shows BOTH sides of the issues by using data from the UN Report and U.S. Government report. I would normally ignore a book by a non-climate scientist promising "the truth about climate science that you aren't getting elsewhere." The globe warmed by 1.1 C since 1900. And so I sit as a citizen of a developed Physicist and former CalTech provost Steven Koonin's superb 2021 book, Unsettled? He's never published a single peer-reviewed paper on climate science." For a national lab "to invite someone who's not even in that field and has never published in that field and only airs his ideas in right-wing media is absurd," she added. This is often referred to as cherry picking.. In an apparent quest for fairness when he led a committee of the American Physical Society (one of my professional organizations) to assess its statement on climate change, he recruited three scientists to represent the 97% consensus, and three contrarians, presumably to speak for the other 3%. As a result, the constant repetition of these and many other climate fallacies are turned into accepted truths known as The Science.. Scientists who reviewed the post some of whom have reviewed past claims by Koonin found inaccuracies among his claims. He's also the author of "Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and Why It Matters." Again, if you look The statements quoted below are from the video; comments are from the reviewers (and are lightly edited for clarity). The PSC also quoted Steven Koonin, who is known for his highly misleading views about climate science, and questioned the scientific accuracy of the analysis by the United Nations . How many times have you heard it? The WSJ title could just as well have been: Last decade showed highest mass loss from Greenland ever measured. Since I Professor Koonin was confirmed by the Senate in May 2009 as Undersecretary for Science at the U.S. Department of Energy, serving in that position until November, 2011. Timothy Myers, Postdoctoral Researcher, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory: Claim: Projecting future climate is excruciatingly difficult. think theres, at least among the experts, a better understanding of just how Overall, the article is, I believe, intentionally misleading and flawed, by presenting real data to support inaccurate interpretations and potential outcomes., UPDATE (28 Feb. 2022): On 27 February 2022, seven scientists, including Marco Tedesco, published a response to Koonins article in the Wall Street Journal. We are well-aware that uncertainties surrounding clouds affects our ability to know precisely what future warming holds, and focus on predictions from models that better match observations. This was regional rather than global, but can be used to make recent changes in the US seem less relevant than they are. With respect to the climate system itself, there was a paper last summer in which four noted mainstream economists analyzed eight different tipping points, including the proverbial outcasting of the permafrost, the slowing down of the Atlantic circulation, the desertification of the Amazon, and so on. After . [8] And Briner notes that figure leaves out critical context about sea level rise from other sources: Antarctica, mountain glaciers, and thermal expansion of the ocean, for instance. Figure 1 Surface elevation change rates in Greenland during 1900-1983 (a), 1983-2003 (b), and 2003-2010 (c). think we are well into stage three now, when you look at what happened in And Patterns and Projections of High Tide Flooding Along the U.S. Coastline Using a Common Impact Threshold, Global mean frequency increases of daily and sub-daily heavy precipitation in ERA5, Causes of Higher Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models, Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution, A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses, An Assessment of Earths Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence, Observational constraints on low cloud feedback reduce uncertainty of climate sensitivity, Observational evidence that cloud feedback amplifies global warming, Observational constraint on cloud feedbacks suggests moderate climate sensitivity, Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence. But how can we possibly know global cloud coverage say 10, let alone 50 years from now? Much of what he says is at least partially true and the same points have been used to argue that we must urgently do something about climate change. Of course this hits home, as the author of the paper with more or less that title. are starting to realize how hard it is to reduce emissions. Theres nothing about this statement that is incorrect or exaggerated, Jason Briner, lead author of the study on which the headline was based, said. In the first place, the theoretically predicted trends would not have been detectable in the sparse and noisy hurricane record until recently, and in fact they HAVE recently been detected. The article picks only the last 10 years, excluding the remaining time series for the context, hence cherry-picking that period and not considering many climatic factors when describing the downward trend. Humans have had no detectable impact on hurricanes over the past century. He accepts that climate change is primarily driven by human activity, but is more skeptical of . Zeldin or lawsuits could derail controversial Penn Station area redevelopment, How the government hid the truth behind Hunter Biden's laptop, Im plus-size and haters say my tummy looks like a butt in these pants, Kyrie Irving releases apology after promoting anti-Semitic film, Nets suspension, Bungee jumper reportedly leaped to death after mishearing instructor, Donald Trump deejays 'wild' Mar-A-Lago party as Ivanka celebrates her birthday. It is the case that climate change is worsening many extreme weather events, particularly heatwaves, but this conclusion is founded on a large and growing number of peer-reviewed studies. It was also concluded that these changes were likely due to anthropogenic climate change, Walsh continues. California Institute of Technology, Professor of Information, Operations & Management Sciences, 2020 Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Recruiting, Organizations, Collaborations, Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesnt, and Why It Matters, Professor Steven Koonin is quoted in a story detailing the Trump Administration's preparations for the next National Climate Assessment, Professor Steven Koonin's "Red Team/Blue Team" climate exercise is cited, Professor Steve Koonin's "Red Team/Blue Team" climate exercise is mentioned, Professor Steve Koonin's "Red Team/Blue Team" climate exercise is cited, Professor Steve Koonin's "Red Team/Blue Team" climate exercise is referenced, Professor Steven Koonin discusses how bureaucrats spin scientific data in connection with climate change, A Red Team Exercise Would Strengthen Climate Science, University Prof. Steven Koonin Delivers Lecture on Can We Ever Get to a Zero-emissions World?, In an op-ed, Professor Steven Koonin argues that adaptation to climate change is a more effective and achievable strategy than reducing carbon dioxide emissions, The Tough Realities of the Paris Climate Talks, Professor Steven Koonin on Google's Sidewalk Labs, In an op-ed, Prof. Steven Koonin discusses the science on climate change, Prof. Steven Koonin is interviewed about NYU's Center for Urban Science and Progress, Prof. Steven Koonin and the Center for Urban Science and Progress are highlighted, Prof. Steven Koonin on NYU's Center for Urban Science and Progress. Koonin's research indicates the climate is changing and humans have influenced some of that change. Trying to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions is futile. Come on. But to create a climate model, we have to make assumptions. The overreach of science is a major . Our reviews are crowdsourced directly from a community of scientists with relevant expertise. The articles claims exaggerate the statements made by scientists about the urgency of the situation but the argument is vague, not quantitative and hand wavy. But the reality is that the United States is indeed experiencing more extreme heat today than it was decades ago. From what I can tell, Steven isn't a climate . He is also correct that the need to model the entire planets climate for centuries precludes simulating the very small-scale processes that are involved in cloud formation, and this means that assumptions must be made around clouds in models. Mr. Shellenberger's collaborates with a variety organizations (read: political front groups, not science institutions) like the CO2 Coalition, CFACT, and Heartland Institute, that have long denied the science of climate change and fought every viable mitigation policy. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Parts of the early 20th century, particularly the 1930s, were very warm in the United States. Stage three is they realize just how difficult its going to be to Scientist Award (Humboldt Prize) and the Department of Energy's Ernest Orlando Lawrence Award. Claim: For example, government reports state clearly that heat waves in the US are now no more common than they were in 1900.. One of the country's top physicists, who served as the Department of Energy Undersecretary during the Obama administration, is out with a new book that pushes back on climate change hysteria and. Surface elevation change rates in Greenland during 1900-1983 (a), 1983-2003 (b), and 2003-2010 (c). One of the key contributions of Koonin's book is its detailed account of how the climate change message gets distorted as it goes through successive filters as the research . That said, highly vetted and peer-reviewed climate and ice sheet models, which are very good at correctly modeling Earths past, suggest that the present rates of ice sheet mass loss will not stay the same, but will increase. Schoof points to Koonins claim that government reports state clearly that heat waves in the US are now no more common than they were in 1900. Koonin is correct that clouds, which can have both a warming and a cooling effect on the planet, are an important part of understanding the climate and remain a challenge for climate modelers. Yes we dont know everything we would like to about the complex details of climate change but we know enough that we should do something about it. Wall Street Journal "Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and Why It Matters." By Steven Koonin Note: I've ordered the book, but have not read it. Professor Koonin is the recipient of numerous awards and honors, including the George Green Prize for Creative Scholarship at Caltech, a National Science Foundation Graduate Fellowship, an Alfred P. Sloan Foundation Fellowship, a Senior U.S. SUMMARY [2,8], Dr. Many statements are misleading and others are simply incorrect, said Justin Schoof, director of the School of Earth Systems and Sustainability at Southern Illinois University. And of course there are large swings in the annual ice loss rate these swings have tracked well both Arctic climate (on decadal scales) and with modes of climate variability and weather patterns (on the sub-decadal scale). 3. information from activists painting a very apocalyptic scenario? A soon-to-be published book by physicist and New York University professor Steven Koonin, Unsettled, convincingly lays out some of the problems a high-quality review would reveal. Attributing Extreme Events to Climate Change: A New Frontier in a Warming World. koonin, a physicist, professor and undersecretary for science in the department of energy during the obama administration, starts from the position that yes, climate change is real, and then,. Aug. 25, 2021 1:18 pm ET. By Steven Koonin. But this tells us absolutely nothing about what the human influence on Earths temperature actually is. This was regional rather than global, but can be used to make recent changes in the US seem less relevant than they are. This style of selective wording and lack of context, an approach called "cherry picking", applies to every one of Dr. Koonin's scientific . So at least the best mainstream economic thinking is the economic damages of rising temperatures including tipping points are at the percent level, a nothing burger. The author begins by describing what he refers to as "The Science"you know, the thing everyone is supposed to be following: The former Obama administration official and physicist counsels otherwise. There is no climate emergency. Steve is a professor at New York University and anonresident senior fellow hereat the American Enterprise Institute. In Unsettled: What the Climate Science Tells U This means down-weighting models that are very insensitive to CO2 as well as those that are too sensitive to CO2. 2015. think we should be less concerned. This is not supported by the report he claims to be using. Learn more: 5 Questions for Beth Shapiro on Using Synthetic Biology for Conservation | 5 Questions for Jamie Beard on the Potential of Geothermal Energy | 5 Questions for Elizabeth Kolbert on Geoengineering, CRISPR, and Modern Environmentalism, Weekly analysis from AEIs Economic Policy Studies scholars, Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesnt, and Why It Matters, 5 Questions for Beth Shapiro on Using Synthetic Biology for Conservation, 5 Questions for Jamie Beard on the Potential of Geothermal Energy, 5 Questions for Elizabeth Kolbert on Geoengineering, CRISPR, and Modern Environmentalism, Discussing inflation and employment: Pethokoukis on CNBCs Power Lunch, When It Comes to Reducing Global Poverty, Bono Is Right and the Anti-Capitalists Are Wrong, James Capretta: Reforming US Health Policy. Anyone who says that climate models are just physics either doesnt understand them or is being deliberately misleading.. Data is binned into 3-year periods. Global warming: Steven Koonin against the merchants of fear. Many statements are misleading and others are simply incorrect. difficult it is to change the energy system or to build a reliable energy unfortunately, the US is only 13 percent of global emissions. Not surprisingly, the Biden administration has made climate and energy a major priority infused throughout the government, with the appointment of John Kerry as climate envoy and proposed spending of almost $2trillion dollars to fight this existential threat to humanity.. Annual loss has been decreasing in the past decade, Lauren Simkins, Assistant Professor, University of Virginia: Prior to joining the Obama Administration, he was BP's Chief Scientist, where he was a strong advocate for research into renewable energies and alternate fuel sources. Steven E. Koonin is a university professor at New York University with appointments in the Stern School of Business, the Tandon School of Engineering, and the Department of Physics. Justin Schoof, Professor and Chair, Southern Illinois University: Claim: Natural fluctuations in the height and coverage of clouds have at least as much of an impact on the flows of sunlight and heat as do human influences. solve it. Changes in high river levels depend on the region, but the data are sparse so there is low confidence in global changes. 15 dr. susan seestrom . More generally, the coldest temperatures (at night, during the winter, and so on) are rising more rapidly than the warmest temperaturesthe climate is getting milder as the globe is getting warmer . It is a little narrow (and sure, maybe underwhelming for some) to consider just one of these sources in isolation. There is now extensive evidence that heatwaves are increasing due to global warming, both globally and also specifically in the United Statesand recent government reports (in addition to peer-reviewed research in other venues) reflect this. projections? We got to worry about that. I think its a subject that needs to be researched. depends a little bit on where you sit. The third, which is lengthier and lightly edited, comes from a chapter entitled "Apocalypses That. The proportion of global major hurricanes increased by 25% over the 39-year time period analyzed. at the 20th century, as the globe warmed a degree, we saw the greatest A critical review of Steven Koonin's 'Unsettled' Posted on 1 June 2021 by Guest Author. Theres nothing about this statement that is incorrect or exaggerated. Humans have broken the earths climate. "The author of this video, Dr. Steven Koonin, says he is following the scientific reports published by the UN and US government, but by subtly changing wording and choosing not to mention important context this video is very likely to mislead readers. Mr Koonin, 69, and I are of one mind on 2018's US Fourth National Climate Assessment, issued in Donald Trump's second year, which relied on such over-egged worst-case emissions and temperature . Mark Richardson, Research Associate, Colorado State University/NASA JPL: Steven E. Koonin is a theoretical physicist, professor, former Chief Scientist for the BP petroleum company, and former Under Secretary for Science at the U.S. Department of Energy under the Obama administration. In the United States, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found that, over the last several decades, annual frequencies of high tide flooding are found to be linearly increasing in 31 locations (out of 99 tide gauges examined outside Alaska) mostly along the coasts of the Northeast/Southeast Atlantic and the Eastern/Western Gulf of Mexico, and to a lesser extent, along the Northwest and Southwest Pacific coasts. Im very much Overall, the article is, I believe, intentionally misleading and flawed, by presenting real data to support inaccurate interpretations and potential outcomes. Some overviews of how extreme event attribution is conducted, as well as examples of applications to specific events, include: Andrew King, Research fellow, University of Melbourne: Divers remove sixth set of human remains from dwindling Lake Mead, Bidens latest hot air on soaring energy costs, Young voters not sold on Dems, is Abrams hurting Warnock in Ga. and other commentary, The Lefts Black-vote freak-out, the Democrats climate problem and more commentary, Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesnt, and Why It Matters, How couples can choose the right way to divorce post-COVID. Unless This is simply not correct. 6 . India, I might have a different set of concerns, but my own concern has been Absolutely not. heat waves in the U.S) do not adequately convey the severity of climate change in impacting communities and ecosystems worldwide. Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us - by Steven E. Koonin. One of his main messages is that there is much more uncertainty about where the climate is headed than many climate scientists and even a higher percentage of people in the media are willing to admit. Climate Feedback is a non-partisan, non-profit organization dedicated to science education. Steven Koonin is a physicist, New York University's professor, director of NYU's Center for Urban Science and Progress, and former Obama Undersecretary for Science at the US Department of Energy. In fact, an entire sub-field of climate and atmospheric science has developed in recent years specifically aimed at developing and implementing scientifically valid methods of attributing specific extreme events to climate change (known as extreme event attribution.) Its impossible to make a blanket statement about all kinds of extreme events (global warming is increasing the frequency and intensity of global heatwaves, for example, but decreasing the intensity of global cold snaps), but numerous scientists around the world now conduct research on this specific topic, and often find physically and statistically overwhelming evidence that climate change has increased the risk of specific events such as individual extreme heatwaves and extreme downpours (among other types of events). This is supported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (which Koonin cites), which stated in 2013: Based primarily on Nick et al. This statement is flat out wrong. Koonin is doing that here by focusing on a time series that includes the Dust Bowl in the 1930s, which was exacerbated by poor land use and years of drought and brought about heat waves that remain the most severe in recorded U.S. history, according to the EPA. The Greenland Ice Sheet is currently melting at a rate comparable to (or greater than) any in the past 12,000 years, let alone 80 years ago, Daniel Swain, climate scientist at the Institute of the Environment & Sustainability at UCLA, says. He is a Fellow of several professional societies, including the American Physical Society, the American Association of the Advancement of Sciences, and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the U.S. National Academy of Sciences. Arctic Climate impacts Greenland Sea level rise, Published on: 24 Feb 2022 | Editor: Katie Valentine. Lauren Simkins, Assistant Professor, University of Virginia: Anthony Downs talked about the cycle of issue (AP Photo) Yes, it's true that the globe is warming, and that humans are exerting a warming . 110 quotes from Steven E. Koonin: 'the land is warming more rapidly than the ocean surface, and the high latitudes near the poles are warming faster than the lower latitudes near the equator. . And of course, your matter of concern Published in PragerU, by Steve Koonin on 25 Oct, 2021. in recent decades, as well as an overall increase in tropical cyclone intensity. Increased Flood Exposure Due to Climate Change and Population Growth in the United States. Ph.D., Theoretical Physics Koonin also tackles society's response to a changing climate, using data-driven analysis to explain why many proposed "solutions" would be ineffective, and discussing how alternatives like adaptation and, if necessary, geoengineering will ensure humanity continues to prosper. certain about those outcomes? The Greenland Ice Sheet is currently melting at a rate comparable to (or greater than) any in the past 12,000 years, let alone 80 years ago, Swain says. And Parts of the early 20th century, particularly the 1930s, were very warm in the United States, Schoof explains. Lauren Simkins, Assistant Professor, University of Virginia: break-the-glass option if things get bad fast? But how can we possibly know global cloud coverage say 10, let alone 50 from. Do not adequately convey the severity of climate change and population Growth the! 1930S, were very warm in the United States, Schoof explains excruciatingly difficult sparse so there is low in. Temperature actually is Technology, B.S., Physics it was also concluded that these changes were due. Activity, but the reality is that the United States uploaded by Gage on Wikipedia Steven E. Koonin Science.! ], Lauren Simkins, Assistant Professor, University of Virginia: break-the-glass option if things get fast! 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